Some of it translated
If China manages to produce the DUV machines itself, it could cost ASML billions of euros in the long run. In the last quarter, 14 % of the machines ASML sold went to China. The Veldhoven‑based manufacturer expects to earn 20 % of its revenue from China this year. If the revenue forecast, recently revised up from €43 billion to €45 billion for this year, materialises, that would correspond to roughly €9 billion.
Further testing
For now ASML does not seem to have to worry. Chinese technology is not yet as advanced and reliable as that of the Dutch company. Before mass production can start in China, the machines still need to be tested. This year China is reportedly starting production of five machines; a year later that number is expected to rise to twenty.
Although ASML appears to retain its lead for the moment, investors were spooked on Monday. The ASML share ended 8.5 % lower, the lowest level since early June. Dutch rivals Besi and ASM also fell sharply, losing almost 10 % and more than 7 % of their value respectively.
At this point I’ve accepted that the USA has ceded(purposefully?) its top spot on the world stage to China.
ASML is Dutch.
We were ordered by the US to cede our top spot.
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What most people don’t understand is that the more you push China with tariffs, restrictions and sanctions, the more they will become self reliant - especially when it comes to technology. They will not roll over and curl up. Quite the opposite. Such a smart move by Trump’s vasal Mark Rutte to block a commercial company selling to China. Just like with Nexperia. Both backfired hard as China has doubled its efforts to catch up and in case of Nexperia just manufactured these chips locally.
China already has equivalent GPU’s just not as efficient yet. https://tech-insider.org/huawei-ascend-950pr-ai-chip-nvidia-china-2026/
It’s ridiculous to do that so late in the game, but companies really wanted to outsource production to cheap areas in the 80s and ignore the long term consequences.
Move all our production to a country that doesn’t respect foreign IP? What could go wrong?
What most people don’t understand is that they don’t play by the rules and should not play with us at all.
The rules are made up. The market is deciding.
Like everyone should play by the fucked up rules set by the US? It good that at least one major world power doesn’t give a shit about America anymore. The US is forcing all countries to do the same. Europe is trying to break free of the US shackles, China just was first.
If you see how little ceremony there was for President Pedo compared to let’s say the President of Uganda who visited recently - BTW China knows the correct name of each country in Africa unlike the clown show that is the US - you know how little respect they have.
ASML is a victim of US sanctions and Dutch/EU spinelessness. China would never had bothered to pursue lithography as serious as it did if US wasn’t continuously trying to stop China on every technological front. The Europeans let US do it in the hope and under the promise that China would never succeed.
I think China would have pursued it regardless, they just might have relied more heavily on European tech then they do now and thus would have delayed their home grown tech. Or if Europe played their cards right would have resulted in a better trade alliance with China and have benefitted both economic areas by exchanging tech advances sidelining the US. This last one might be a bit to much of a utopia though
Due to Western export restrictions, ASML is only allowed to export some of these machines to China; the most modern equipment is subject to a complete blockade.
In the past quarter, 14 percent of the machines that ASML sold went to China.
Play stupid games and win stupid prizes.
Preventing one of your biggest customers (China) from getting the equipment they need forces them to make it themselves.
Now China can make their own DUV lithography machines of similar quality to the ones they can get from ASML.
And obviously it won’t stop there, China will continue to improve, and probably in a few years compete with ASML on the high end EUV equipment too.Politicians, and even corporate C-suite, often confuse “cheaper to buy from the incumbent” with “incumbent has impossible-to-replicate technology,” completely ignoring that it’s way easier to invent something the second time.
Technology might have been a barrier in 1960’s China, but they’re a peer nation today.
That and the NVIDIA ban on China both backfired spectacularly
Absolutely, although China can’t match Nvidia yet, they can now make chips that are good enough for 90% of the tasks.
Nvidia can no longer sell their second rate products developed specially for China anymore either.
Worth mentioning that this export restriction was only enforced because of continuous pressure from the US.
maybe we shouldn’t allow USA to decide European foreign policy? Just a thought.
Yay! Lower prices and an accelerated pop of the data center AI.
ASML “plunged” right along with the entire tech sector…
Of course if China manages to spin major fab capacity of bleeding edge nodes off of this in the next few years they’ll have no use for US chips.
Couple that with the fabs being built in the US currently and Taiwan is losing a lot of strategic leverage…
If the sheer incompetence would stay consistent, US companies would start to buy chinese vcards and maybe even their inventory of underpowered nvidias. The American way is to play bait and switch without even baiting. It is to poke own eyes out to win at poker.
