Was in a company wide meeting yesterday. The cto was talking about OpenAI being too big to fail.
I have a take on that. I’m going with hank green on this one. https://youtu.be/jOR4wuiPeEQ
The entire US economy is being held up by the ultra-wealthy right now. We should be in a recession, but they’re pushing all the right buttons in all the right places to keep stocks where they need to be to keep running.
The AI bubble isn’t blindly bobbing around on the top waiting to pop, it’s orchestrated. Yes, it’s a bubble. Yes the stated value there isn’t anywhere near real. But it’s not going to pop until they let it. Investors are going to stay with it as long as they’re not scared of it going away and the ultra rich are using it as a vehicle to maintain wealth and unless they somehow screw up, it’s not going anywhere until they decide to do something different.
OpenAI isn’t too big to fail, but the Industry as a whole is too well-funded and tightly controlled to let it fail, for now.
Stupid question, but since the world is currently falling over itself to make new business connections/alliances and is moving away from investing in the US economy because the clown president likes to threaten his allies, how long will the US economy last as the world slowly abandons America? Because while the movement may appear slow right now, I am actually experiencing this extreme change in the world order to be happening super fast. The effects may not be felt over night and maybe not even in ten years, but what trump has accomplished in one year, will most likely have a very negative impact on the US economy for decades and decades to come. Because we ain’t fucking coming back. That’s for sure.
Not a stupid question at all, but so far in the weeds of speculation that we couldn’t get a straight answer out of it with a 24 pack of beer, a d100, and a really good DM. But let’s ponder.
The nature of international trade and finance is screwy AF. It’s like finance for the rich, where the only money that exists is what people owe to you and what you owe to people. Noting ever changes hands, not to say that it would soften the blows but it does make the effects move more slowly than one might want.
If it were just the international fall of Apple, Microsoft, and Google, along with the standard bits and bobbles of alcohol, and whatever 100 other odd consumer products we actually still manage to produce in the states, I don’t think that’ll hurt us as much as whatever eventually happens to with AI. A single day of military production probably outstrips most of that. While it’s possible that other warmachines can ramp up to quell the hunger of everyone for world destruction and weapons for self-preservation, I suspect once the current series of aggressions, fiasco,s and administration disappear, the US war machine will still find plenty of buyers, though the menu will likely change as we’ll no longer seen as a reliable ally. Food and Oil/industrial exports will likely fluctuate, at most. I suspect they’ll be forced to sell at a discount. If tourism doesn’t recover, that’ll beat the F out of a lot of places. We might see Vegas go fallout style.
I’d love to see European alternatives for Apple, Microsoft, and Google. I’d import that in a hot second.
Honestly, If the world really wanted to see the US burn, they could just stop trade altogether. The time to restructure food, coal and oil would be enough to starve out a lot of the population, even if we’re relatively close to self sustaining, none of those channels are setup.
Imaine the calls for blood when you can’t get produce out of season and avocados become $15 each.
Ah so a market upset the rich control the timing for, virtually indistinguishable from a bubble unless you’re holding all the cards, amazing analysis by HanK Green.
OpenAI is small fry compared to the other AI players. They are the least likely to get a bailout.
This is actually a moment where “Thanks Obama” applies, what a precedence to set… Should have given the relief on the demand-side, not the fucking banks.
2008 called. They want their huge bailouts back.
The big guys will be fine. Your 401(k)? Fucked.
Still waiting for that crypto pop. It seems less relevant nowadays, but judging by Bitcoin’s current price, it hasn’t quite popped.
Sure hope my GPU is built to last.
It’s an ongoing scam for the ultra wealthy and Tech Bro influencer con artists.
That’s not an exaggeration. That’s what it is.
Hence, it will keep going as long as it keeps getting boosted across media.
It’s inevitable; Bitcoin has already popped like a dozen times now.
Dipping isn’t popping, and BTC is doing what it’s designed to do, allowing black markets to sell drugs and sex slaves
Is there a similar long-term demand for LLMs?
Lemmy users waiting for AI to stop working because it’ll start training on AI generated content
“We are 20 years away from Fusion Reactors”
– Scientists 60 years ago.
“We are 20 years away from Fusion if we get X amount of money”
– Scientists right before recieving less than 1% of X amount of money.If we spent as much on fusion research as we do on killing each other we’d have cold fusion in under a year.
Just castrate 99% of the men, problem solved.
I’m no scientist, but i’m pretty sure there’s a giant fusion reactor in the sky. I think it’s called The Sun or something like that.
Also known as a deadly laser
This annoyingly bright object in the sky is a giant fusion reaction, but not a fusion reactor
It’s a lil bit of both
The sad thing is that when it bursts it won’t do it in a hilarious “billionaires all get shafted” way like it didn’t any of the previous times. It’s far more likely to take the form of the most powerful AIs suddenly only being accessible to the wealthy.
The tech bros have been disastrously wrong about the future of technology twice since Moore’s Law broke and the endless treadmill of computer upgrades stopped: about crypto and about the metaverse. They’re desperate to not be wrong again, and they think that by spending enough money they can generate a reality distortion field that actually makes overhyped AI financially feasible. So they’re going to keep pumping the money in as long as they’ve got it. But even their wallets are finite.
As someone who has regularly used virtual worlds for 20 years, the whole Metaverse thing was so hilarious.
Like, Facebook did not invent 3D online worlds, there are 3D online worlds older than Facebook.
“But wait, metaverse is not just 3D Virtual Worlds.”
Which inecitably leads to "ok, so its just “The Internet”.
As for the “Constantly being wrong.” At somepoint, these people forgot that “having an idea” does not mean “Having a useful idea.” You hear arguments about all these flash in the pan bull shit concepts like “People said the same thing about the internet or the iPhone.” Yeah, and they said the same thing about a dozen other new idea that time forgot for every Internet or every iPhone idea that took off. Not every idea is “the next big thing”. Statisrically, most ideas are “Not ever a thing.”
As for the “Constantly being wrong.” At somepoint, these people forgot that “having an idea” does not mean “Having a useful idea.”
Absolutely. They can’t fathom anymore that, just because they want something, it doesn’t mean that anyone else does. Or that they’re not already getting it, even if they do.
You hear arguments about all these flash in the pan bull shit concepts like “People said the same thing about the internet or the iPhone.”
Right, and I always think, “both of those solved actual problems that hadn’t been solved before.” Problems that I remember feeling, as a person who was conscious in the 90s: the need for quick, efficient, long-distance information transfer, and the problem that computers were stuck in your house when a lot of what you needed them for was while you were walking around.
Cryptocurrency didn’t solve a problem that most people feel (and, I would argue, it didn’t efficiently solve a problem that anyone actually has). The metaverse didn’t solve any new problems at all (as you noted, the one thing it could do that anyone wanted was something that was already being done). And AI was already being used for anything it was good for long before Sam Altman convinced a dozen billionaires to give him multiple small-countries’-GDPs.
And since being a good businessman really means finding a solution and offering a product that solves it, they’re just proving how bad they are at business.
The lead-up is a bit long, yeah.
But the crash at the end is worth the wait.AI has the momentum only from investors and banks. But unfortunately, the paying customers are few and far between. Also, don’t forget that these companies are losing money even on the paying customers. There doesn’t seem to be any path to profitability for these companies. So, no wonder everyone is saying it’s a bubble.
I use AI some, but if it vanished, it woukd not change anything and I would just go back to my okd ways.
Also, my two cents, the biggest hinderance is how prudish they are, because they are disgustingly prudish. How many but tech pushes worked because of porn? Most of these mainstream AIs just shit the bed at the most PG tier conversations or actions. Basically, the current push by the hugely conservative nanny state is clashing with these people’s desire to push this stuff into the Mainstream.
I thought it was also considered a bubble because so much money has been invested in all those projects now that couldn’t possibly return any revenue in 100 years or so.
It’s even worse than that, because the more users they have the more expensive the tools are to run. It’s the opposite of how economy of scale is supposed to work. I forget the exact numbers but apparently for every dollar they make they lose 2 or 3x that.
Every new iteration of their models is also exponentially more expensive to run. They desperately need the output to improve because of how inconsistent it is, but doing that only increases the money hemorrhage.
There’s basically no way out from what I’ve been reading about it.
Exactly.
https://youtu.be/HAkCypsQIQk this video has the ending if anyone is cursed by this gif
If anyone edging from the gif wants to finish here is the time stamp: https://youtu.be/HAkCypsQIQk?t=246
Boo, no engine in it… Thanks though.
Apropos for the metaphor however.
Yeah, there was another ‘truck vs bollard’ video where the entire engine flies out and continues on its merry way for a while. Was much more engaging than this.
How nice to make the entire driver’s seat a crumple zone.
It’s because they keep securing their loans with eachother’s loans, it’s all negative numbers though
The good ole credit swap trick
I hope not, that’s basically what 2008 was. We could at least get a new reason.
Capitalism doesn’t breed enough innovation for new reasons. That’s why they need AI, to come up with new bullshit.
The way AI works, wouldn’t they just get the old bullshit, but reworded each time? With a side of hallucinations ofc
🌍🧑🚀🔫🧑🚀
Sort of, except this time instead of it being millions of homes about to be foreclosed on its like 10 multibillion dollar companies, so the real problem is who is positioned to buy those companies when their share price crashes and they need to be sold for peanu… fuck it’s Trump isn’t it? In 2 months we’ll be using MicroTrump Werd to write reports and Tesla Xsell to build spreadsheets, but only when we can navigate our way through a minefield of vibecoded slop and ads for ICE.
You jest but USGov already owns 10% of Intel, the seal’s been cracked, and it’d be a suitably fascist move.
Considering that both Intel and AMD originally grew up on government contracts, It’s a wonder that the government doesn’t own 49% of each.
Well everyone’s index-based investments will also take a nose dive to be fair. So that’s going to be a lot of people’s retirement funds set back by several years, maybe a decade.
they should be fine so long as their funds freak out and sell the dip … obviously the people about to retire might have to hold off for a while
That’s managed funds, which are costly and don’t tend to perform better than index funds in the long term (unless your fund is managed by Warren Buffett). Index funds will by definition take a huge fall because like 30% of the S&P 500 by market cap for an example is heavily AI-invested companies (just a couple of companies at that).
I’ve moved all of mine to European and Asian indexes to be less affected when it happens, but since I was using a national pension system fund up till now, it’ll take until like May or whatever till the move is complete. So I hope there’s no crash before that at least. At least any new payments already go to the funds I’ve selected rather and can sell on a whim, rather than the old system where the bank chose the exact ETFs and I can only sell/move funds 3 times a year and have to apply for it beforehand.
But anyone else who’s still stuck in that system with a composite fund dominated by US-based index ETFs, will take a massive plunge when it happens.
Damn if only there were some sort of alternative not owned by anyone and built by the community. If I’m making impossible wishes I’d also want it to be free to use. Maybe even open source.
Nah that would never work. Who would put in that kind of effort for free? Silly idea.
Sadly my company has complete say over the platforms I use when at work. Given their scramble to adopt copilot with little or no obvious benefits and unknown depth of security flaws, I don’t hold much hope that they will pivot to an entire new platform suite on Microsoft’s collapse …
You have unleashed the cursed gif upon us
What was it, Sam Altman can stay irrational longer than you can last between klarna payments?
I fear it never will, because I suspect whoever is pushing for all of this dissident tracking on the Internet is propping it up with dark money.
The people in charge of these companies already have all the money
The US can always print more money.
Edging me fr fr
More like, the AGI that those CEOs are saying will solve all the world’s problems as long as we keep giving them billions of dollars and more data centers.
Right? How can everyone not see it? Didn’t they hear Dario say everyone will be replaced in 6 months for the 20th time since 2022?
Dario
Which Nintendo character is this
He’s Wario’s dumber and less put together cousin
