“more clear that the real future of AI is small language and open-weight models running on local desktop computers” So where are we with those smaller models? I haven’t been following them. Are they any good?
Please let it happen. Please! Hopefully datacentres gets demolished also or turned into puppy orphanages.
Look, none of use should be cheering for a full on pop of the buble. It will hurt all industries. And we know the oligarchy has insulated themselves in ways that will ensure they feel very little pain. It will be all the workers who will feel it. As for data centers, I don’t think we need the bubble to burst to fight that. Lots of jurisdictions are already banning them. That is what we should be cheering for.
Nephew calling a 1.25% drop a “tailspin”.
Look up the Flash Crash sometime, that is NOTHING.
I’d suggest that the 1929 stock market crash get an entire unit in elementary school, High school, and every economics course in college. Do the same for the 89’ crash and the Dot com Bubble. Really drill it into these young entrepreneurs how Speculating in the stock market NEVER EVER leads to anything good. It’s a Faustian bargain. The consequences WILL arrive; not a matter of “if” but “when.”
1 newspaper
Yeah, Bloomberg though. Not saying that they are great, but it’s among those that Wall Street bros read to decide what to buy and sell
Hope the fuckers all burn.
AI is the future. It is just that companies are rushing headlong into it, not properly planning nor preparing for it.
Sure, maybe one of them would be the next Google - but the vast majority are dinosaurs in a world to be filled with smoke and rats.
There are lot of problems in this world that make artificial intelligence dooming humanity seems like tuesday in comparison , and those problems got similar treatment from all of humanity: protest, hearing, discussions and a bit of outlier that spark things a bit and after that moved on to another problem without solution a.k.a status quo till everything collapse.
I mean why a.i dooming entire humanity begets different treatment?
My money’s on plague.
we just had that.
I put my stake to ongoing environment collapse like sane person here.
The fact that more people don’t know just how far past the point of no return we are is still shocking sometimes.
Yes, and many of those who know think countermeasures suddenly became futile. Rather, the time when mitigation is easiest and most effective is always exactly now. So, whatever anti-collapse action (or inaction) you all put off or planned for “later”, start it today. You will never again have a chance to have this impact.
Yes any time now. Just like in 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025…
Nvidia is not even overpriced. If anything, it’s underpriced because it’s a 5 trillion dollar company and the market doesn’t believe it will be able to keep growing.
I dont believe this technology will become anything actually smart. It’s still just text prediction. But it’s good enough for a lot of usecases.
Is that why someone on Thursday just spent $21 million on 100,000 puts at $180 of NVDA?
That’s cool. Link to it please. Some prediction market?
It isn’t profitable at current pricing, and it will have lower adoption at higher pricing.
The technology isn’t going anywhere, when the bubble pops and hardware prices come down, local open weight models will be sufficient and the hardware to run them will be cheaper than cloud models.
In the short term, however, it’ll be a shit show.
It isn’t profitable at current pricing, and it will have lower adoption at higher pricing.
The subscriptions that are there to expand customer base, sure.
But that significant part of the business where large corporations pay API prices? These are designed to cover the costs.
The reasons why the companies still running losses with subscriptions is that the market devide is far from settled.
I really wish you guys who believe this would be able to go forward in time and see what happened. :)
Well… We all go forward in time. That’s kinda how time works (generally).
Unfortunately we can’t go there and back. :)
Do you have a reason to believe what I said is unbelievable?
It’s their own numbers…
Personally, in this paragraph:
The technology isn’t going anywhere, when the bubble pops and hardware prices come down, local open weight models will be sufficient and the hardware to run them will be cheaper than cloud models.
I honestly believe that the AI hype is just the justification for the price hikes on hardware, the point is removing access to capable hardware for all of us so that they can have most, if not all, control over the population.
I certainly hope you’re right, but all signs say otherwise, in my opinion anyway.
Get off YouTube! Your thinking has been poisened with conspiracy mindset.
That may very well be the case. Now, is it really a conspiracy when everything points to it, or is it a justified suspicion?
Conspiracies exist. Many are well documented, or at least documented enough to call out specific people for specific behavior.
A conspiracy mindset ignores those, and instead suspects conspiracy everywhere else, and usually without substantial evidence. Easy instances are detectable when the sentence goes they do something to harm us in a vaguely related way.
The latter is all over YouTube, and what influencers make money with. The former is sometimes reposted on YouTube after some journalists publish it in a serious media outlet.
Maybe, but im convinced it will work just like any other technology that has arrived before it.
Currently we are in the hype stage where so called experts are warning the technology can kill humanity and other silly things.
But this will pass. The technology will continue to be very useful to both companies and individuals and because of this, pricing will adapt. This means less price for the consumers as number of users and competition goes up.
We will have a society where Ai is used to take our orders, find our information, do a lot of office job tasks. It will become just as common everywhere as screens and phones.
And people say it’s not going to be profitable? That’s extreamly improbable. Every technology that is used by everyone is highly profitable, it’s just a matter of which companies will win the market and which won’t.
There won’t be any bubble popping because it’s not a bubble. It’s a new technology, like phones and laptops once were too. I had one of the first smart phones actually and I watched that market explode over the coming decade, with every human buying a smart phone. That market is now stagnated, more of less. But Ai has only just begun.
As how my local AI would put it, “I would like to gently push back”:
There is an AI bubble. Just as the Dotcom Bubble, it won’t kill the technology nor slow advancement - it simply selects against companies that are not fiscally responsible or intelligent about their agenda.
The problem is not that it’s a useful tool for some applications. The problem is the insane amount of money thrown at this which is not possible to repay unless their product achieves runaway AGI and can actually cause these doomsday scenarios. They have no path to profitability. Like, none.
These companies are so rich and already have existing revenue in billions, so even if the Ai bet doesn’t work out, they can simply pay off their debt using their ordinary revenue.
It would disappoint the stock market, sure, but I doubt that it would create anything more problematic than maybe a 20% drop in the stock, temporarily. And that would be because investors would know that the future will not contain the promised profits. But the companies would still be fine, still be able to pay their debts, and still be able to run their business as usual.
Its not like in dot com where companies without revenue got to borrow tons of money they could never pay back.
Its not like in dot com where companies without revenue got to borrow tons of money they could never pay back.
It’s exactly that, but much worse. These companies do not make money. They lose tons of money every quarter. They have revenue but it doesn’t even cover their operations cost. But that’s not even the expensive part; training new models is hideously pricey and that will not change. And they must keep training new models lest they “fall behind” in this race to the bottom. OpenAI owes a Trillion and a half dollars to their investors. They have at least a trillion in obligations to compute providers. They keep taking more investor money, most recently with SoftBank who sold junk bonds to raise it.
Not to worry, OpenAI may lose money on every sale, but they make up for it in volume!
The ones who don’t believe this can?
There is this insane amount of investment in AI built around LLMs that threatens the entire world. People worry about the bubble bursting but think AI is the ant’s pants without considering that the LLM is a dead end. None of the AI companies are going to achieve Artificial Intelligence. That’s why they will actually implode, their systems aren’t intelligent.
well, they are being trained my the management, and as we all know these types wan’t 150% of the benefit with 25% of the work.
It wont be a real AI, but itll be just enough to kill off a lot of the software industry.
what software industry? React developer industry?
I’m genuinely curious what “real AI” is to you?
A true Turing Machine, obviously
One that when given input will give the correct output, every time, without fault or stalling, in a timeframe that is quick
A Turing machine has nothing to do with AI. Pretty much any computer today can emulate one, the only thing lacking is infinite memory.
Isn’t there a difference between Turing Complete and Turing Machine?
I thought many machine can be Turing Complete (when given infinite resources, can give any required output), but a Turing Machine is one that is complete?
Real ai to me would mean true agency. And an entity which has its own goals and relationship to its world.
Yeah. I wonder if it might be difficult to identify something that reaches that point? I suppose genuine creativity might be an indication of intelligence? Or a desire to reprogram itself? I dunno, I’ve recently read Peter Watts blindsight and it kind of made me reconsider the relationship between consciousness and intelligence.
If someone truly believes LLMs are sentient, then they must under no circumstances prompt them even once; that would be murder.
Please explain without sounding crazy.
An LLM is a stateless stochastic function ran over your prompt (plus whatever system prompt) as input.
If you genuinely believe that the LLM is conscious, that means every time the function stops running (i.e. stops producing output tokens), the consciousness ends.
This is far closer to death than to, say, sleep, because prompting again doesn’t “wake” the LLM, it just runs the function again, from the top; as if a digital twin was given a transcript of the previous conversation and asked to take it from here.
(Obviously, “murder” was somewhat tongue-in-cheek, and this doesn’t even remotely meet any legal definition of murder. I was mostly poking fun at people who think LLMs are alive, without thinking through the implications. Personally, I think the idea that LLMs are alive/conscious/sentient is very often linked to not understanding that LLMs are not, in fact, a constantly-running ghost in the shell, thinking about and remembering things in the background.)
I think that’s the wrong conclusion. I agree they won’t achieve actual intelligence, but I see no reason why that would make them implode. Current tech is still going to be something companies pay a lot for.
I mean, they are artificial intelligence by pretty much any normal definition of that term. So is Battle Chess from the 1980s. So is bank fraud detection. So is Conway’s Game of Life in its most basic definition.
Will they develop “super intelligence”, etc? No
I fear that yes they are not good enough to actually replace labor, but good enough to cause unprecedented chaos. Under capitalism, at least.
The funniest part is that the thing that could actually make AI useful at scale might be what wrecks the investment thesis: cheap, local, open weight models. Wall Street funded a trillion dollar server farm to discover that sometimes the answer is a smaller model running on your laptop. The technology might win while the investors lose. Nevertheless, companies such as Google, Amazon, and Microsoft – as well as Nvidia and AMD – are a very long way from simply going under.
Google, Amazon and Microsoft will be fine.
Oracle, though. It’s possible they’ll actually die. And wouldn’t that be tragic.
Oracle, though. It’s possible they’ll actually die. And wouldn’t that be tragic.
Oh the humanity
they wont be fine, they will suffer heavy lossess but will survive, likely just by laying off hordes tech people, and even downsizing thier warehouses. i think nvidia will get off mostly less harmed though, since they sold thier products years ahead. hopefully it takes down skydance with it.
I would comment about Oracle, but I don’t want legal bills.
Fuck 'em with a rusty rake
I think NVIDIA has a higher chance of survival because they’re the ones actually producing something tangible (GPUs) that is still needed even if openweight models prevail.
At the same time, they are doing extreme price gouging with little improvement between generations since h200. Huawei actually has better $/performance ratio and accelerating faster. Others have better inference solution, with AMD doing better on $/training performance too. The fact that Nvidia is the one propping up the AI bubble, sinking their cashflow into dead ends, makes it a bad stock too. Peak NVidia BS got exposed in an Australian IPO this week. It was too absurd to get anyone to buy and got cancelled. Heavily backed by NVidia.
shovels, gold, etc
they’re doing far more than just that, the way jensen has been able to structure all almost all of these deals essentially offloading all the risk. they sell essentially lease the hardware, ontop of huge chunk of premium up front, ontop of paying for compute itself, ontop of offloading any actual buildout cost onto any greedy schmuck willimg to pay the tab. nvda will be completely fine (though stock price will obviously correct as bubble-levels income drops)
I doubt it. Government would step in and bail them out.
This isn’t going to happen. They’re not the banks, and they’re pretty universally hated in the country.
When the AI bubble pops it’s going to take down the banks.
There is a lot of private credit dollars loaned to data centers and the banks are heavily invested in private credit.
It’s a house of cards priced for perfection just waiting for one of the big 5 to have a slightly off quarter.
But their owners didn’t kiss the ring for nothing.
yep, with our money.
And whoever scavenges their corpse will milk their
customersprisoners even harder!
Too big to fail? I think I heard that once.
I just can’t see things continuing like this, there has to be a plateau reached at some point. Higher or lower. Exponential growth isn’t sustainable in anything.
Why do you think they are starving consumer market for computer parts?
I think we are talking about the same thing. AI companies spend billions to monopolize compute, causing consumer hardware prices to go up.
lol you’re kidding, right? Have you looked at component prices lately? Have you missed the part about how basically all consumer electronics that use LPDDR are getting price hikes, because the demand for high performance memory has skyrocketed by an order of magnitude in the last few years?
Edit: yeah I realized I was replying to a rhetorical question 🙃
He didn’t mean to question the premise that the consumer market is being starved, he was highlighting the reality of that and connecting it as being motivated by a fear of local models.
Admittedly, the question was ambiguous and could be taken either way, but the comment didn’t mention that consumer market was starved, his question brought it into the discussion.
Note that I don’t think that it is fear of local models personally, I think it’s fear of each other. I think cloud infrastructure providers already proved that even when people can locally host stuff, they mostly don’t. So many consumer electronics could meet their promises all locally, but still force the users to connect to their internet services. The tech market has already proven time and time again they are suckers for subscription eshitification, no need to panic over it being different for AI.
Nevertheless, companies such as Google, Amazon, and Microsoft – as well as Nvidia and AMD – are a very long way from simply going under.
Not really, once you look at the startups like OpenAI they have enormous expenses that depend on constant debt and investment funding, and the cost and risk of sustaining that debt can easily reach a point where they struggle to get new investors to foot the bill.
The whole market is based on a belief in a huge pot of gold some time in the future, and it is driven by unfathomable amounts of debt to keep the machinery running towards that goal. Once the belief in the goal getting reached gets broken, the change in momentum breaks the whole system.
That includes the big players, huge amounts of their balance sheets, including claims of revenue, are circular trades between themselves. Even google claims revenue from asset price growth in their AI subsidiaries.
Once it shifts from investment to repaying bad debts the numbers will look completely different for all the big companies involved. We’re talking potentially bail outs basically across the board
The term bailout needs to stop being used and normalized. This is nothing like the housing market and audio industry crash.
These rich fucks don’t need socialism for the rich yet again, they need to eat their losses.
There is no AI bubble, just like there is no housing bubble. It’s here to stay. This is the sad truth.
Yeah dude, there was never a housing bubble and it never burst. Sure thing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis
Some of us here are old enough to remember living through it.
How’s those houses priced for ya nowadays bud?
An economic bubble doesn’t require that the assets suddenly disappear upon the bubble popping.
The 2008 financial crisis was caused in part by the popping of a real estate bubble in the US. Those properties didn’t magically evaporate after the bubble popped, though many families couldn’t afford to keep their homes.
In the same manner, nobody is really suggesting that LLMs will suddenly disappear after the AI bubble pops, only that they will probably be proven to be significantly less profitable and get scaled back.
In the same manner, nobody is really suggesting that LLMs will suddenly disappear after the AI bubble pops
There is a significant portion of AI haters who think exactly that, for some reason.
I mean, it’s likely that a good chunk of these hyperscale data centers and some of these big corporate LLMs will run out of cash and close shop. We’ll probably see a big pivot to much more efficient models that are local and/or purpose-built, not unlike what the Chinese are already doing.
they will literally restore slavery before they let a strategic corporation fail.
As a financial analyst, Klement’s take on the AI economy has been notably grim — back in May, he penned an article in Reuters arguing that institutional investors shouldn’t be asking “whether the AI boom will end, but what will happen to markets when it does.” Now, his live interview on Bloomberg‘s flagship news channel underscores the degree to which the AI bubble is becoming impossible for mainstream commentators to ignore […]
What’s interesting to me is that people who run Bloomberg have a huge advantage in manipulating the market.
In fact, the story behind the AI boom really has to be how the business press operates, always enabling the upper class to be richer.
Of course, if the Iraq war is any example, there will be a few confessions and nothing will change.
We’ve basically got to wait for Anthropic and OpenAI to actually IPO before any of this can get started properly. Once there’s a public expectation for profit from the two biggest AI labs, then the market will start acting against them. We can hope, at least.
Once there’s a public expectation for profit from the two biggest AI labs
I don’t think that it’s necessarily the order things will go.
Anthropic and OpenAI have bills to pay, including obligations to pay a ton of money to partners/vendors in the coming years. They need cash to do that. And the cash can come from 3 main places: revenue from customers, loans from lenders (usually in the form of issuing bonds), and issuing new stock/equity to raise funds.
The IPOs are basically their last chance to raise funds by issuing new equity. Even if each of them raise $100 billion, that’s probably not enough to hit self sustaining profitability. As lenders start to get more skeptical, in a macroeconomic environment with high interest rates and high energy prices, they start to run into a very real possibility that they hit illiquidity issues, even if their core business model actually works by then (and I don’t think it will). There’s just not enough runway for them, even in the most optimistic long term projections.
investing in the wrong future
I’m assuming they mean “future” in the same way the stock market (ab)uses the word, because AI had its lower ribs removed on day one. There’s no future there.
